Source: Today's Insurance
Co-sponsorships, cultural events, award nominations, and a "Customer Festival" here, a "Service Season" there... As we enter Q3, while companies are busy leveraging every opportunity to engage with customers and boost visibility, channels and performance have become the last topics anyone wants to discuss.
Unlike the widespread gains in the first half of the year, the life insurance sector took a sharp turn in the second half, dampening practitioners' enthusiasm and motivation. As noted in previous articles such as "Miscellaneous | Individual Insurance Down 7% in Month 40, Bancassurance Down 8% in Month 70: How to Save Full-Year Performance?" and "Miscellaneous | New Single Premiums for Individual Insurance Fell Over 60% in Month 8: Is It Worth Saving This Year?", both months 7 and 8 saw significant drops in new single premiums across key channels like individual insurance and bancassurance, turning full-year cumulative growth from positive to negative.
The past two months still allow for some justification. With the record-high baseline from the same period last year, 2026 saw its business momentum and rhythm come to an abrupt halt after consecutive years of downward adjustments in the assumed interest rate—triggering "stop-sale" campaigns. The sharp decline in monthly performance over these two consecutive months was well within industry expectations.
Will conditions improve by 9? After all, in the same period last year (9), the industry was largely stagnant, so the base effect won't be an excuse or a burden.
Indeed, it looks impressive. According to the latest industry channel data, in 2026 9, single-month new premiums for bank insurance surged across the board, with growth reaching 270.7%. New single-year policies also saw month-over-month year-on-year growth exceeding 200%. This marks the highest growth rate for bank insurance since 2026. However, this single month represents a powerful rebound for bank insurance, as the situation in 2026 has seen multiple reversals after an initial turnaround.
However, it is evident that last year's low base means this growth may have a negligible impact in absolute terms. After the dramatic surge over 9 months, the full-year decline in new bancassurance policies has only narrowed slightly; both the total volume of new policies and new single-premium policies remain at double-digit levels.
And this momentum may face new uncertainties in the final quarter. It is reported that regions have begun requiring investigations and suspending sales of "quick return" products maturing at the end of year 3, which are the core product type under the "insurance 3 with bank guarantee 6" channel.
As a result, channels may face uncertainty about what to sell—whether aiming for full-year retention or preparing for a strong start to the new year.
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The single month with the highest growth rate in 2026
It may simply be a return to the norm for channel business.
Regardless, the growth rate for 9 alone is enough to lift spirits and allow companies to boast again after months of silence in the second half. New single premiums grew by 270.7% year-over-year, and new single premium term business grew by 216.9%—the strongest and most significant month among the first 9 months.
This growth rate also completely dispels the gloom of negative growth in the previous two months, with figures of 60% and 70%.
From the second half of the year onward, 7, 8, and 9 each showed month-over-month growth. This trend supports the conclusion that recovery has been steady and conditions have continued to improve throughout the latter half of the year.
This conclusion is entirely correct but lacks impact. Even at such a high growth rate, the absolute volume cannot bridge the shortfall from 7 and 8, nor can it meaningfully influence the overall annual trend.
Moreover, data from exchanges show that the single-premium volume of new policies in the bancassurance market in 2025 month 9 was the lowest since 2008, and the single-premium amount for new regular-payment policies was also the lowest compared to the same period since 2017.
Although we no longer wish to dwell on the history of "stop-sale hype," the reality is that since 2023, not only did the stop-sale window close, but new business in the bancassurance channel immediately flatlined—and has grown flatter each year. This trend also reflects the industry's increasing reliance on and expectation for stop-sale tactics, leading many to normalize this practice.
Given this trajectory, the shift in business performance in the second half of 2026 was primarily due to interest rates not being lowered. Conversely, the return to single-month growth in 9, even achieving the strongest growth rate since 2026, reflects effective company strategy, a capable team, and successful transformation toward value-driven insurance banking and high-quality development.
It is true that many companies previously launched "September-October coordination" initiatives to drive annual targets and sustain growth, delivering immediate performance results. However, based on the data shared, the approximately 492 billion in new insurance premiums for the single month of 9 cannot be compared to the peak months during the "fire sale" periods, such as the "strongest 8" or "6 storm." At minimum, there is no significant gap compared to 9 from several years prior to the fire sales, nor does it match the same-period performance of previous years before 2018.
In other words, through this coordinated round of initiatives, insurers have brought the May bank insurance business back to a "normal" annual pace during this period without "stop-sale" hype.
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Can a full-year negative growth trend be reversed?
The final quarter is full of uncertainties.
Theoretically, moderate negative growth in new channel business is within expected bounds. However, given the industry's asset-liability structure and the interests, roles, and compensation of practitioners and managers, this trend cannot be ignored. Currently, many companies are actively taking steps to reverse this situation.
Regardless of how weak the growth rates in 9 appear when viewed against the full year, the decline in new annual business has ultimately narrowed. The scale of new business improved from a negative growth of 18.6% in the first 8 months to a negative growth of 13.7% in the first 9 months. Similarly, premium-based new business shifted from a negative growth of 15.8% in the first 8 months to a decline of 11.8% in the first 9 months.
If Q4 of 2026 follows this trend, the bancassurance channel will indeed return to overall positive growth by year-end.
Many signs point to a positive outlook. In 9, many companies achieved growth of several hundred percent in single-premium volume and new business, with some even exceeding 1000%. Despite the base effect, if this momentum can be sustained for 1 to 2 more months, it could genuinely transform the overall picture.
Additionally, the companies leading in new single-month orders are almost exclusively major industry players. These firms have generally maintained growth rates above the industry average. Combined with their scale and strength, this instills greater confidence.
However, historical data on new premiums from the fourth quarter of prior years—before the "stop-sale" hype—seems insufficient to support this level of performance. Historically, it is rare for any operating year's final quarter to generate enough new business or regular-premium new business to fill the growth gap seen at 2026.
With the "Red Opening" season approaching and some major companies already launching their individual insurance campaigns early, bancassurance will struggle to focus solely on 2026 in the remaining time. Resources, strategies, clients—no matter how much headquarters pushes or coaches the branches, trade-offs are inevitable.
Furthermore, rumors are swirling around the regulatory review of "quick return" Bancassurance products, which state that, in principle, no new products shall be filed where the cash value at the end of policy year 3 exceeds the premiums paid.
According to some companies where bancassurance is the dominant channel, even using the highest dividend illustration rate for participating insurance products, most policies will only return principal after 4 years. Products structured as "pay 3, insure 6" that return principal by the end of year 3 are concentrated in certain specific insurers and are unlikely to have a significant industry-wide impact.
Given the unique challenges currently facing bancassurance channels, uncertainties have increased for the coming months and the critical "Kai Men Hong" business period.
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Single Premium New Single-Premium Policy Overdue
What is the core narrative of bancassurance?
Currently, the only aspect that insurance-bank partnerships can use to present themselves in a more favorable light is the steady increase in the proportion of premium payments made through regular installments.
New single-year premiums have long been the key metric for assessing the intrinsic value and capability of bancassurance channels. In some companies, only new single-year premiums are evaluated; lump-sum new policies are excluded from performance metrics altogether, and their commission rates have become negligible. Put simply, the central trend in current bancassurance development is the shift toward single-year premiums.
Throughout 2026, the overall development trend continued to show clear momentum. In the first 9 months, the decline in new single-premium bancassurance policies remained smaller than that of single-payment policies, indicating a steady rise in the single-premium ratio. Currently, the split is roughly 50-50.
In fact, in the first half of 2026, bancassurance regular-premium income surpassed single-premium income, briefly achieving a true "regular-premium bancassurance" scenario. However, starting in the third quarter, single-premium income exceeded regular-premium income for three consecutive months and ultimately overtook it on a full-year cumulative basis, making the narrative of regular premiums driving value less smooth and harmonious. The data for the single month of 9 further confirms this: both in terms of scale and growth rate, single-premium income was significantly higher than regular-premium income.
Generally, single-premium policies still exceed regular premiums. Even with alternating trends between the two, this does not indicate channel regression or diminished value. Rather, it reflects that a significant share of single-premium premiums may be indispensable in bancassurance channels. Conversely, a state where regular premiums consistently dominate is unsustainable for bancassurance.
If this is the case, it means the long-standing narrative of bancassurance evolution contradicts actual channel operations—it's essentially a dead end. Although many have argued that single-premium payments in bancassurance offer "value potential" and at least generate profits, value is clearly more closely tied to regular premiums. Meanwhile, bancassurance must maintain a high proportion of single-premium payments over the long term; otherwise, practical implementation becomes a major challenge.
If that's the case, there may still be quite a few paradoxes surrounding the bancassurance narrative. As of 9, although the industry giants have shifted their focus to individual insurance in the second half of the year, major companies continue to hold a more prominent position in terms of both channel scale and new single-premium policies. Most other top players are essentially "old acquaintances" with no viable alternative but bancassurance.
In the past, many mid-sized insurers heavily bet on bancassurance—even at the expense of shrinking their individual agency business—and viewed larger companies' increased investment in bancassurance as validation of their own "correct" strategy. Now that those large players have indeed entered the space, it remains to be seen whether these mid-sized firms are better off because of their "right" strategic choices.
