By Reporter Leng Cuihua
Recently, the A-share market has experienced volatility and consolidation. Investors are closely watching the market's trajectory in the fourth quarter and how insurance capital will adjust its investment strategy. Insurance sector experts interviewed generally expect the A-share market to remain volatile in Q4. Regarding current holdings, most insurance institutions plan to make no major adjustments and will continue with their long-term investment approach.
A senior executive at a life insurance company told the Securities Daily that they expect the A-share market to experience wide-range volatility and structural divergence in the fourth quarter. Market drivers will shift from liquidity and narratives to earnings realization, while congestion and valuation divergence are expected to act as headwinds.
Another interviewee told the Securities Daily reporter that they expect the A-share index to fluctuate and find its bottom in the fourth quarter. The direction will depend on two signals: first, whether third-quarter earnings reports from listed companies validate market profit expectations; second, the implementation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment in 12 this year. They believe that under the influence of factors such as high global interest rates, a systemic expansion in A-share valuations is unlikely.
Overall, respondents expect the A-share market to trade sideways in Q4. Some anticipate a higher probability of upward momentum amid volatility, while others foresee continued weak consolidation.
Based on market outlook expectations, senior representatives from insurance asset management firms generally stated they will not make significant adjustments to their current portfolios and will maintain a long-term investment strategy. If the market experiences a sharp decline, they view it as an opportunity to add positions. "We will keep our current holdings unchanged with a well-balanced allocation. Should the technology sector drop significantly, we will increase our exposure to that sector," said an investment head at another life insurance company to Securities Daily.
The head of investments at the above life insurance company further stated that differentiated investment strategies will be adopted for different product accounts. Traditional insurance accounts will primarily hold dividend-oriented low-volatility assets on a long-term basis and be classified as FVOCI (financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income) to mitigate short-term market price fluctuations. Dividend-linked and universal life accounts will adopt a fixed-income base supplemented by equity enhancements, with a focus on position management. Variable annuity accounts will allow for higher growth elasticity. For composite special-purpose accounts, absolute return targets and drawdown constraints will be prioritized.
A senior executive at an insurance asset management firm told reporters that the company will continue to adopt a moderately diversified allocation strategy, focusing on dividend-paying assets and resource commodities. Innovative pharmaceuticals and deeply undervalued technology leaders are also under observation; positions will be built incrementally after third-quarter earnings reports validate performance.
A senior executive from an insurance firm stated that the company will maintain a dual-track strategy focusing on high-dividend blue-chip assets and technology growth sectors. High-dividend stocks will serve as the core portfolio, while technology growth investments will be leveraged to pursue higher returns. The specific approach emphasizes "a thicker foundation and a sharper spear." High-dividend assets offer strong valuation safety margins and are expected to deliver bond-like yields over the long term, so their allocation may increase further. Conversely, while the allocation to technology growth sectors may decrease slightly, quality standards will be raised. This shift aims to reduce reliance on broad sector trends for gains and instead focus on active stock selection by portfolio managers to generate alpha. The company will implement these adjustments by directing new capital toward selected targets and gradually exiting existing positions.
